Estimation of Primary School Teacher Demand in Golestan Province, 2024–2027

Document Type : research article

Authors

1 Associate Professor, Department of Education, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran.

2 Associate professor, Department Statistics, Faculty of Mathematical Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran

3 M.A. Graduate in Educational Planning, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran

10.22080/eps.2025.29841.2364

Abstract

Aim: Teacher demand forecasting is an analytical and data-driven process aimed at estimating the optimal number and composition of teachers within a specific time horizon. Therefore, the present study was conducted to estimate the demand for elementary school teachers in Golstan province during the years 2024 to 2027.
Methodology: This research is applied in terms of its purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of its method. The statistical population of this study consisted of all official data and statistical documents related to the indicators of the total number of teachers, incoming personnel, and outgoing personnel from all elementary schools in Golstan province over the 4-year horizon of 2024-2027. The Human Resources Flow Model was used to forecast demand, which analyzes the inflow and outflow of teachers based on data from the past five years (2019-2024).
Results: The results showed that women constitute 70% of primary school teachers in the province, and 60% work in rural areas. Forecasts indicate an increase in teacher demand from 9,559 in 2024 to 9,884 in 2027. Moreover, uneven teacher distribution between urban and rural areas and the shortage of young teachers in underprivileged regions are among the main challenges.
Conclusions and suggestions: The findings highlight the necessity of revising teacher recruitment and distribution policies, particularly in rural areas. It is recommended to address shortages by designing financial and welfare incentives, expanding the capacity of Farhangian University, and employing hybrid forecasting models. Additionally, in-service training programs are essential for enhancing the skills of current teachers.
Innovation and originality: By integrating real-world data with the Human Resource Flow Model, this study represents the first comprehensive assessment of primary school teacher demand in Golestan Province. Its results can serve as a model for other provinces and educational policymakers.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Journal of Educational Planning Studies
Volume 14, Issue 28
March 2025
Pages 174-193

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History

  • Receive Date: 16 August 2025
  • Revise Date: 14 November 2025
  • Accept Date: 08 December 2025

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