Presenting the future image of the development of the education organization's performance management system using scenario planning

Document Type : research article

Authors

1 Adaptive management and development, faculty of management, Islamic Azad University, Qaemshahr branch, Iran.

2 * Assistant Professor of government management, faculty of management, Qaemshahr branch, Islamic Azad University, Qaemshahr, Iran.

3 Department of Educational Management, Faculty of Humanities, Islamic Azad University, Ghaemshahr Branch, Iran

4 Assisant professor of Mathematics and Statistics, faculty of Engineering technology, Qaemshahr branch, Islamic Azad University, Qaemshahr, Iran.

Abstract

Objective: The current type of research is applied in terms of its purpose, the purpose of which is to plan the development of the performance management system of the education organization with scenario planning technique.
Methods: The current research is integrated in terms of the implementation method and has been carried out with the methods of future research, scenario writing and the approach of critical uncertainties, The method of data collection is library, interview and questionnaire, it is qualitative according to the process of scenario writing.
Findings: The findings show that the education performance management system faces five key uncertainties in the future, which, taking into account the logic of the scenarios, 4 scenarios with a very high probability of occurrence are envisioned in the future development of the education performance management system.
Conclusion: In order to plan the development of the performance management system, three types of actions can be imagined by the education organization. These actions can be imagined in the form of four strong scenarios resulting from this research based on the placement of qualitative content in three categories: favorable scenario, static scenario and critical scenario.
Innovation and originality: While identifying the possible and likely scenarios for the development of the education performance management system in the coming years, it determined the desired scenarios for the development of the system and with the image of different and alternative futures, increased intelligence and the possibility of high accuracy and has opened the way to deal with dangers,

Keywords

References

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Journal of Educational Planning Studies
Volume 11, Issue 22
March 2023
Pages 117-136

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History

  • Receive Date: 05 January 2023
  • Revise Date: 19 February 2023
  • Accept Date: 20 February 2023

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